How to plan long-term when libraries are constantly changing
In the last few weeks I have been looking at a tender for development of community infrastructure (including a library) in a fast-growing outer metropolitan area. Fascinating project – I’d love to be part of the winning bid. But the thing that sticks with me most is an innocuous statement in the project scope that says …
“Create a business case for a strategically located central library that will serve as a cornerstone catering to the evolving needs of the population over the next two decades.”
This is a perfectly reasonable objective. It’s exactly what this Council should be seeking in the interests of its emerging community. And no doubt the project will produce an output that looks eminently sensible.
BUT … let’s face it, this is an IMPOSSIBLE ask. Because right now we have no idea what community demand for library services will look like in 2043.
OK – gross overstatement! People will still want to borrow books, although the prophets of doom assume that printed books will be obsolete and nobody will want to borrow the old ones when they can download everything online. And that MIGHT be true, but I’m going out on a limb to say that libraries will still be lending printed books in 20 years’ time.
And if I have long argued that libraries do, and always have, offered 5 core services – collections; information and reference services; programs; technology access; and places and spaces – then I have to hold my nerve and say that this will still be true in 2043. What those services look like in 20 years might not be what we currently know, and the specific mix for communities of different demographic composition will still vary, but I believe the core service offering may read the same. And the outcomes for individuals and communities in terms of literacy, learning, wellbeing and cultural connection will still be real.
So what’s my point? If the library of today is much like but also very different from the library we had 10 and 20 years ago, then isn’t it reasonable to assume (especially given the exponential rate of change in social, technological, economic and environmental conditions) that public libraries in 20 years will also be a bit the same and dramatically different. Consider this. As we entered the 21st century, fearful of Y2K:
eBooks were just starting to become a thing
libraries imposed overdue fines
technology support programs (where they existed) focused on basic computer skills
we still stored our data on 5¼ and 3½ inch floppy disks
there were no Harry Potter movies
‘shush’ing was still a thing in libraries
Anh Do was just starting his career as a stand-up comedian
there was no Facebook, no Instagram, no Twitter (later to be called X) and Tik Tok was the sound made by a clock
people paid for their photocopying with 5c coins
‘open’ libraries were when the doors opened in the morning (not 24/7 access)
Elon Musk was a Latvian cologne (only kidding – he’d just founded Paypal)
we renewed books by handing them to the librarian
the closest metropolitan library was never more than 7 minutes’ drive away
nearly every library service had a mobile library
working from a ‘home office’ meant you probably didn’t have a ‘real’ job
people’s heads would have exploded at the concept of Drag Queen Story Time (oh – they still do!)
‘Virus’ was a newly-released (and truly awful) movie that wore no ‘Corona’ and had zero impact on everyday lives around the world
… .
Today’s libraries are home to millions of eResources, art classes, slides and tunnels and eSports. Children can read to a dog, the Justice of the Peace is there on Wednesdays, charging stations are in hot demand and we can access our libraries 24/7.
In 20 years libraries will change again. And everyday life will be vastly different in ways we can’t even imagine. For example … Artificial Intelligence … Enough said.
Which brings me back to where I started. How do we usefully inform long-term planning for public libraries in a complex, dynamic and somewhat unknown environment?
The answer, as it always has been, is to just give it our best shot and accept that if we’re lucky we’ll get it 50% right. And my best shot starts with the following assumptions.
Libraries still offer those 5 core services. People still borrow books. Families still come to Story Time and holiday programs. People still want someone to help them access and use the latest technology. People still want a safe comfortable place to sit and relax – cool in summer, warm in winter. People still want to connect with one another, their community and their heritage.
Libraries are still a volume business. The larger the population the greater the demand (regardless of demographics).
Libraries continue to have varying appeal throughout the life cycle. Some people are active library users their whole life. Others dip in and out as it suits their life circumstances. And libraries still play a vital role in early years literacy because they have the volume and range of printed reading/pictorial material.
Technology will continue to revolutionise how, where and when people access library services.
Librarians will still be (as they have always been) resourceful and adaptable. Even when they can’t find the answers they will find a way to make it work.
Place is a premium service. Imagination is a driving force. Belonging is a critical outcome.
The idea of a free library, open to everyone, is held dear by enough people that it is still hard to close a library.
Let’s pop that in a time capsule shall we so that in 2043 my children can marvel at my naivety (well, more than they currently do).
And now get back to living in the real world where, when faced with the need to develop a 20-year business case, we share ideas, challenge one another, consider scenarios and imagine possibilities. Because maybe, just maybe, together we can get the future of libraries 51% right.